Polls, polls, polls. There are a million of them. Well, ok, that's a slight exaggeration, but there are quite a few. The one thing they have in common is that they show a Republican surge going into tomorrow's election day. The Pew Research Center has Democrats with a slight edge over Republicans among likely voters, 47-43%. Here's a list of the latest poll numbers. All show Democrats winning, but, as you can see, the numbers vary widely.
What do these numbers mean?
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
This is quite a difference from what polls were saying last year, when Republicans couldn't have won dog catcher in an all-cat town.
A year out from the 2006 midterm elections, the Democrats hold an extraordinary lead in voter preferences.
My, what a difference a year makes. Now,
Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections,according to the Pew study.
All of this confirms my original assessment of polls, which is none of them are worth anything. As has been shown repeatedly in elections over the last dozen years or so, pollsters are repeatedly wrong. They were wrong about the Republicans taking over the House in 1994. They were wrong about the election of 2000. They were wrong about the election of 2004.
In short, polling is an inexact science at best and about as accurate as the Magic 8 ball at worst. Large segments of the population don't even participate in polls because they use Caller ID to screen their calls. Others don't have land lines, which are the phone lines polling companies use to poll people. Still others either don't give their real opinions or feel like their answers weren't recorded because they weren't the "right" answers.
The only poll that counts is the one that takes place on Election Day. That poll will be tighter than ever this year, if recent elections are any indication. I still think Republicans will retain control of Congress (I have a big bowl of crow sitting in the refrigerator in case I'm wrong), but I'm not worried too much if Democrats are in charge, since a presidential veto will keep them in check. The only question now is will liberals act like adults and accept the election results if they aren't what they are hoping for? Judging from recent blog posts, I'd say the answer is no, unless the results go the way they want.
P.S.--More poll commentary here.
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