Interesting discussion over at the Brothers Judd about what the upcoming elections could mean if Democrats win. I stated earlier that I don't think there will be any stomach among Democrats for impeachment, particularly since so many Dems voted for the war in Iraq and are on the record as supporting it. Plus, it would be, well, unseemly. Not that that's ever stopped Democrats from doing anything.
Here was the best analysis I saw (and, of course, it's the one with which I agree) written by poster "Bob":
Obviously, a GOP congress makes things easier on the President but it will hardly destroy him.
Lets assume the Dems reverse the curent 233-203 GOP lead and take the Senate 51-49 which are the worse cases possible.
How do they override a veto on anything important?
How do they keep Orrin Hatch or a well qualified but non controversarial minority off the S/C? If they can, McCain will just ride that horse to the White House.
How do they convict in the Senate? 51 ain't 2/3. They won't even get 51, do you think Ben Nelson or Joe Lieberman will vote to convict?
How do they stop the President fom ordering military strikes on Iran or NK if that is what he wants? Hard to put missles back in their launchers after they have exploded.
Raise taxes? Already in place until 2010. See veto discussion above.
Iraq? Cut off funds? OJ would get his 60-40 if they do that. Dead GIs due to a cut off. That will play well in 2008. Anyways, the President is going to pull out on his own. Why do you think Jim Baker is at the Iraq Study Group?
Winning is better than losing but the Dems just won't have the votes. Except on immigration and that the President will sign. If a Dem was in the White House, then I'd worry.
It's an interesting perspective, especially given all the punditry of the last few weeks about what a Democrat Congress could do. Aside from show trials in the House, there's probably not much that will get done, except amnesty, which will be a shoo-in. Otherwise, whatever legislation Dems think they're going to ram through will get vetoed, unless President Bush decides he wants to try to work with Democrats again. Then we can get disasterous legislation like the Ted Kennedy Memorial Education Bill.
What will happen most, of course, is gridlock. Perhaps that's what Americans want. It won't change our policy in Iraq unless Dems want to engrave the "soft on terrorists" moniker on their foreheads. They can't repeal the tax cuts. Probably won't be able to stop Bush judges unless they want to look more obstructionist.
That leaves illegal immigration reform, a.k.a. amnesty, which the President wants anyway. And if Democrats pass that legislation, it might excite people in Maine, but probably not voters in Arizona. This Democrats winning Congress thing is looking better all the time!
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