The latest Zogby poll shows Barack Obama in a 15-point freefall over the summer. I really don't put much stock in polls this far out. We still have 75 days before the election, which is plenty of time for Obama to roar back.
My opinion is that John McCain's celebrity ads, coupled with various missteps on Obama's part, are the reason for the drop in his popularity. As people get to know who Obama is and how he's voted (the only indicators of future behavior), rather than projecting onto him what they hope he will be, they are becoming more uneasy about him.
But keep in mind two things. First, Obama can blanket the airwaves with ads this fall because he has so much money to spend, and so much more money than McCain. It is quite possible that Obama can make up ground with voters through well-placed and effective advertising. The second point is that the November election is still an electoral college race. All Obama needs to do is swing a few voters in key states to win the election. As Democrats discovered in 2000, this isn't a popularity contest.
Still, as Ed Morrissey of Hot Air notes, the Zogby poll is interesting.
Zogby’s internals show this change across almost every demographic, too. Obama lost nine points among Democrats. He lost 11 poinst among Catholics, college graduates, Southerners, and city-dwellers, where he has dropped below 50% — a stunning result. Obama dropped 12 points among voters under 35, another power base for his campaign, and seven points among those earning under $50,000 a year.
The difference — and perhaps the reason for the drama — is that this poll surveyed likely voters, while Pew and the LAT/Bloomberg polls surveyed registered voters. The latter usually favors Democrats, and that could account for the seven-point difference between the two. The month-on-month results show trends that speak for themselves, as Zogby’s methodology has remained consistent.
Obama's inexperience has shown up glaringly in a couple of instances: his handling of the Georgia question and his bungled Saddleback interview. A sophisticated politician should have been able to handle both situations effectively, but Obama came across as out of touch and naive about Georgia and stiff and boring at Saddleback. The contrasts with John McCain's confidence and eloquence could not have been more stark. Hence, the 15-point drop.
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