Why Open Borders Hurt Republicans

David Frum has caught a lot of flak from lefty bloggers for this column which explained why immigration--and the sort of immigration policies favored by the President--hurts Republicans.

In the past, Republicans could win elections despite their unpopularity among ethnic minorities. But with the huge surge of immigration since 1980 - and especially since 2000 - the voting map of the United States has been redrawn in ways inherently deeply unfavorable to the GOP. If Republicans face an inhospitable future after 2008, we will hear much of the dreadful legacy of George W. Bush on social issues, the war, the environment, etc. But Greenberg's own work makes clear that these issues matter relatively little.

(Only 28% of young voters would respond positively to an anti-religious-right message, for example: see page 11.)

No, the legacy that will damage his party is the legacy of immigration non-enforcement. This has imported a large new community of people who are both economically struggling (and thus open to Democratic arguments) but who lack deep attachment to the American nation (and who are thus immune to the most potent of Republican appeals). It is these voters who will sway elections in future. And thanks to this president's immigration policies, there are going to be a lot more of them than there might otherwise have been.

It seems to me like these are logical arguments for why loosened immigration regulations hurts the GOP. Living in Texas, you rub elbows quite frequently with both recent immigrants from Mexico, Central and South America and also families that have been here for generations. And the truth is, even people who can trace their American family tree back generations before mine do not trust Republicans when it comes to immigration. It doesn't matter whether they agree with Republicans on other domestic issues, many Hispanics are as one-issue as a pro-lifer.

Unfortunately, Frum pointing out this unpleasant truth--that immigrants tend to favor Democrats--won him the gold medal in racial politics: Racist!

On his blog, historian Rick Perlstein commented that my post

is the most explicit argument I've seen in some time on the part of a "respected" conservative that only white people count as Americans.

There's nothing in Frum's statement about only white people counting. He merely points out that recent immigrants tend to vote for Democrats. That's hardly the same thing.

Then Frum quotes from his new book:

People who feel in some way disaffected from or alienated from the American mainstream are the people most likely to vote Democratic.

Democratic voters are substantially less likely than Republicans to describe themselves as "very patriotic." Democratic voters express less confidence than Republicans in America's ability to solve problems as a nation. Democratic voters feel less personally optimistic. Democratic voters, of all colors, are more likely to blame others for their troubles. For what it's worth, Democratic votes are less likely to fly an American flag.

And using data from PublicAgenda.org, Frum's conclusion about recent immigrants, specifically from Mexico, are valid.

* Mexican immigrants are significantly less likely than other immigrants to cite "freedom" as something they value in the United States - or as a reason for their desire to migrate.

* They are significantly less likely than other immigrants to agree that immigrants should learn English or to favor English as the language of instruction in public schools.

* Mexican migrants are much less likely to seek citizenship than other immigrants.

What it means is that the immigrants coming from Mexico come to America for different things. They tend not to embrace America with the fervor of other immigrant groups in the past. Why? Because unlike those other groups, they still feel very closely tied to their home country. And the attitudes expressed in the PublicAgenda.org poll show that the core principles of the GOP (patriotism and nationalism) do not resonate with these immigrants.

So, what does all this mean? It means that if Republicans want to compete for voters in the next generation, they will have to alter significantly their messages and beliefs. I'm not at all convinced that can happen, but I'm sure there are those who consider it possible.