Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Short-Lived Permanent Democratic Majority?

It's still early to predict the demise of the Permanent Democratic Majority, but the latest polling data doesn't look good for Dems.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

But that's not the worst of it. Democrat pollster Nate Silverman of FiveThirtyEight.com told attendees of Nutroots Nation that Republicans could gain between 20 and 50 seats in 2010.
“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”

The opposition party typically picks up seats in off-term elections, which probably will keep liberals from panicking too soon. But with President Obama's poll numbers plummeting, many voters seem to be having buyer's remorse about the Permanent Democratic Majority they bought. It's not like they weren't warned about what Democrats running everything would mean, but still.

On a related note, I wonder if Silverman has thought about updating this post from yesterday, given that Obama's favorables have fallen within Silverman's "danger range" for losing in 2012?