Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Shades of November?

Dem Turnout Falls Off A Cliff

Turnout among Dem voters dropped precipitously in 3 statewide primaries on Tuesday, giving the party more evidence that their voters lack enthusiasm ahead of midterm elections.

In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections...

By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board. 373K people voted in Burr's uncompetitive primary, nearly 9% higher than the 343K who voted in the equally non-competitive primary in '04. Turnout in House races in IN rose 14.6% from '06, fueled by the competitive Senate primary, which attracted 550K voters. And 728K voters cast ballots for a GOP Sec/State nominee in Ohio, the highest-ranking statewide election with a primary; in '06, just 444K voters cast ballots in that race.

I hope the momentum keeps up through the November election cycle. There's been some worry on talk radio that anger at the Democrats may have peaked too early, but I'm not convinced. When you have the nutroots working hard to discredit the Tea Party effect, you're probably doing something right. I will say this, though. I'm not as concerned that every person elected is a conservative, just a Republican. A politician who votes the way I want 20% of the time is still better than a Democrat.

UPDATE: A rebuttal to the anti-Tea Party argument from Hot Air's Ed Morrissey:
The Tea Party movement is really just half of the story. While Democrats can count on getting their most engaged voters to the polls in the midterms, they can no longer count on the occasional voter as they did in 2006 and especially in 2008. After almost four years of Nancy Pelosi and sixteen months of Barack Obama, the country has dug itself into a huge deficit hole and a moribund economy. The question is no longer who gets the blame for it, but whether Obama and the Democrats are the solution. The lack of enthusiasm among Democrats show that the answer is increasingly no.

President Obama will continue trying to pin the blame for everything wrong with his administration on his predecessor, but fewer voters believe him and more are just starting to label him a whiner and a bully.