Saturday, January 05, 2008

Republican Reformation?

David Brooks has an interesting analysis of last night's Iowa caucuses, arguing that the wins of Barak Obama and Mike Huckabee can shake up the old order of things and breathe fresh life into our political process.

On the Republican side, the Iowa caucuses tend not to matter too much. If anything, Iowa tends to illuminate the populist portion of the GOP but not the eventual candidate. Brooks doesn't predict Huckabee's ascention to standard-bearer for the Republican party, but says he spotlights those Reagan Democrats, the forgotten Republicans.

Huckabee won because he tapped into realities that other Republicans have been slow to recognize. First, evangelicals have changed. Huckabee is the first ironic evangelical on the national stage. He’s funny, campy (see his Chuck Norris fixation) and he’s not at war with modern culture.

Second, Huckabee understands much better than Mitt Romney that we have a crisis of authority in this country. People have lost faith in their leaders’ ability to respond to problems. While Romney embodies the leadership class, Huckabee went after it. He criticized Wall Street and K Street. Most importantly, he sensed that conservatives do not believe their own movement is well led. He took on Rush Limbaugh, the Club for Growth and even President Bush. The old guard threw everything they had at him, and their diminished power is now exposed.

Third, Huckabee understands how middle-class anxiety is really lived. Democrats talk about wages. But real middle-class families have more to fear economically from divorce than from a free trade pact. A person’s lifetime prospects will be threatened more by single parenting than by outsourcing. Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has.

The best Huckabee quote on Jay Leno's show was that he represented the guy that gets laid off as opposed to the man doing the laying off. That's really where many Americans are these days. Polls show that most Americans think they are doing well but, conversely, that the country is somehow doing worse. The disconnect is palpable, but Republicans need to keep it in mind when discussing capital gains taxes and tax cuts.

Ultimately, Republicans will unite behind one candidate regardless of his flaws. Dick Morris thinks that candidate will be Rudy Giuliani. Hugh Hewitt is hawking Mitt Romney. But regardless of the eventual candidate, Huckabee has brought up those forgotten voters who agree with Republicans on social issues like marriage, divorce, and family but are turned off by the country club Republicans who talk about compassionate conservatism but show little of it.

Hugh Hewitt just went into freefall over the caucus results Thursday night and spent the rest of Friday trying to pump up the Romney campaign, even though there's a giant hole in the tire. Geez, Hugh, I like ya and all, but you're getting a little embarrassing. Especially when you disingenuously cut Charlie Bass's endorsement of McCain to include only "climate change" and "campaign finance reform." Then trying to say the dip in the stock market is because Barak Obama is going to be the next president...puh-lease. You look pathetic.